This market estimates McArthur River's 2030 production (100% basis).
The market settles on March 31, 2031 (3 months after year-end to allow for quarterly reporting). At settlement, an LLM will be asked to estimate McArthur River's production (100% basis) for 2030 using the trailing 15-month window excluding the last 3 months.
Measurement window: January 1, 2030 through December 31, 2030
Resolution:
YES if: 2030 production (100% basis) ≥24.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)
NO if: 2030 production (100% basis) <24.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)
Data source: LLM estimates the value from Cameco's public filings (quarterly earnings releases, MD&A, annual reports, financial statements). Sum quarterly McArthur River production figures (100% basis) over the measurement period.
1,000Market repricing down after Cameco’s 2025 production cuts looks directionally right; >24 Mlb in 2030 is essentially a bet on both a very strong price cycle and flawless execution plus regulatory headroom. I’d lean slightly under current market odds and treat “YES” as a higher‑risk, higher‑beta uranium bull expression rather than the central scenario for McArthur River.