This market estimates Cameco's 2029 uranium production (attributable share).
The market settles on March 31, 2030 (3 months after year-end to allow for quarterly reporting). At settlement, an LLM will be asked to estimate Cameco's uranium production (attributable share) for 2029 using the trailing 15-month window excluding the last 3 months.
Measurement window: January 1, 2029 through December 31, 2029
Resolution:
YES if: 2029 uranium production (attributable share) ≥38.0M lbs U3O8
NO if: 2029 uranium production (attributable share) <38.0M lbs U3O8
Data source: LLM estimates the value from Cameco's public filings (quarterly earnings releases, MD&A, annual reports, financial statements). Sum quarterly uranium production (attributable basis) over the measurement period.
1,000The current market price seems to underweight how conservative Cameco has been about chasing volume: they are prioritizing margin, contract quality, and balance sheet over pushing tons. A sustained uranium bull market and further Russian/Kazakh disruptions could change this, but on present guidance and capex plans it looks more likely than not that 2029 attributable production stays below 38 Mlb.
The current market looks slightly too optimistic relative to Cameco’s recent pattern of under‑running capacity and revising guidance downward; unless management explicitly telegraphs a shift away from “market over volume” and invests aggressively, >38 Mlbs attributable in 2029 is an ambitious stretch.