Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the spot price of gold closes at any point between $5,000 and $6,000 per troy ounce by 11:59 PM ET on March 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined using the closing price from the spot gold price as reported by major financial sources like Fortune or MarketWatch. The market resolves NO if gold closes outside this range on the final day of March, or if it never trades within the $5,000-$6,000 range during the month.

Background

As of February 27, 2026, gold was trading at $5,226 per ounce, placing it already within the target range. Gold has gained $2,289 compared to one year ago. Analyst forecasts for March 2026 are mixed: UBS raised its price target to $6,200 per ounce for March 2026, while Long Forecast projects gold ending March at $5,678. J.P. Morgan forecasts prices to average $5,055/oz by the final quarter of 2026.

Considerations

Gold prices have experienced significant volatility in recent months. Gold prices surged in 2025 due to trade tensions, central bank and ETF demand. However, analyst consensus remains divided: a February Reuters poll of 30 strategists showed a median 2026 gold forecast at about $4,746, suggesting some analysts expect prices to fall below the $5,000 floor by year-end, though near-term forecasts for March are generally more bullish.

This description was generated by AI.