The resolution of the Kashmir conflict by 2035 is unlikely, given the heightened global volatility since the Cold War's end, and especially since 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the new U.S.-China Cold War. With Pakistan aligned with China and India leaning towards the United States, the conflict remains a convenient nationalistic distraction for the leadership of both countries amid pressing issues like climate change.

you turned out to be right. on feb 27 afghanistan nad pakistan are officially at war, which explains the drop in this market but also begs the question why traders haven't been pricing in the information all along.

pakistan has been running air-strikes against afghanistan a few times,
they are mad that the taliban government is not stopping terror attacks in pakistan
- but the terror groups are unrelated, and taliban lacks the state capacity

this basically requires turkey or china to step in
trump wants to run monroe doctrine 2.0 so i'd guess he not gonna do anything

i would hope the moderate faction of the taliban wins out and they can figure out some method of popular democratic self determination. i don't know ... looks grim.

unfortunately the american public is too burned out to 1. care and 2. form a popular resistance in any direction. this is down to the state department. but does marco rubio care? hmm.

...

also like we're meddling in iran right now. which may turn out well for the iranian people let's hope. but it seems the mainstream media is only able to focus on one thing at a time

@Sinclair this is pure hopium but i wonder if we can get a different kind of third-faction / fourth-faction over there. the twitter and american buddhists perhaps.