MANIFOLD
Who will be caught insider trading in prediction markets?
52
Ṁ1.5kṀ3.6k
Dec 31
72%
Any US Military branch
58%
Any Israeli military branch (After Feb 27)
42%
OpenAI (After Feb. 27)
41%
Google
40%
Amazon
40%
SpaceX
33%
KPMG
33%
The White House
31%
xAI
21%
Mr. Beast (After Feb. 27)
15%
Anthropic
Resolved
N/A
Other

A member of the listed organization must be penalized. The action must be a substantial action, including a fine, ban from a prediction market, termination, demotion, etc. A warning is not sufficient. If any other regulator such as the SEC or CFTC takes significant action, also resolves YES. If an exchange takes action, also resolves YES.

The enforcement action must take place from market open to EOY 2026. The insider trading action can occur at any time before market close.

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@nikki Is family of the President considered part of the White House?

@KingAK Good question!

bought Ṁ60 YES

There's been a report about Israeli military people being investigated for polymarket involvement

@DamianKirby Jim Malone: Mr. Ness, everybody knows where the booze is. The problem isn't finding it, the problem is who wants to cross Capone.

@nikki Please N/A and combine with xAI

@Kire_ Why? The companies are merged but they're still distinct divisions. Someone working on fabricating the rockets certainly works for SpaceX.

Title is a bit misleading, though. This isn't about whom they catch, it's about whom they PUNISH.

Everyone on Manifold

I have outsider information, but will keep my outsider information to myself.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen No one would pay for my outsider information anyway.

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