Mototolo is already producing above the bar, and both mine‑specific commentary (Der Brochen ramp‑up, better development, stable milling) and portfolio‑level guidance suggest 2026 output will at least hold 2025 levels unless there is an unforecasted disruption; I’d treat sub‑50% pricing as undervaluing the inertia of an operating South African PGM asset.

Market pricing in the mid‑50s looks reasonable: Mototolo is operating reliably with clear development progress, but the combination of grade dilution, geology, and broader PGM sector uncertainty keeps the edge over 50% fairly modest.

Mototolo is already producing above the required 252 koz level on an annual basis, and management appears willing to prioritize volumes at existing deep-level operations while the PGM basket price is rebounding. Barring a major safety, flooding, or power crisis specific to Mototolo, the market’s sub‑50% pricing looks too pessimistic relative to current production and guidance.

Mototolo is an established, operating shaft complex within a major listed PGM producer’s portfolio, so the bar for “any 5E+Au production in 2027” is relatively low. I’d view the market’s sub‑50% pricing as substantially underrating the inertia of existing South African PGM operations.