Which of the following things will happen in the 2026 USA/Israel vs. Iran conflict by the end of 2026?
23
Ṁ450Ṁ1.6kDec 31
89%
The U.S, and Iran go to war
87%
Israel and Iran go to war
79%
The strait of Hormuz is closed
64%
At least 10 American troops are killed
55%
The conflict wraps up by the end of March.
47%
The Iranian regime will collapse
34%
Crude oil prices top $100
34%
THere is a major domestic terrorist attack in Europe by Iranian-backed terrorists
30%
There is a major domestic terrorist attack in the U.S. by Iranian-aligned terrorists
27%
At least 1,000 Israeli civilians are killed
24%
At least 1,000 civilian deaths in the Arab Gulf countries
20%
Benjamin Netanyahu is deposed
17%
At least 10,000 Iranian civilians are killed
11%
Donald Trump is deposed
9%
At least 100 American civilians are killed
5%
World War III starts
3%
A nuclear weapon is used offensively
Resolved
YESAyatollah Khamenei is deposed
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026
7% chance
Countries that attack Iran before the end of 2026?
If Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
38% chance
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
38% chance
When will Iran-US conflict end?
8/15/26
Conditional on an attack on Iran occurring in 2026, which of Israel and America will strike first?
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?
40% chance