Resolves YES if the US graphite supply chain shift is evaluated to exceed 50 on a scale of 1-100 by March 22, 2026, based on the impact of US tariffs on Chinese graphite imports. The authoritative data source for resolution will be the US Department of Commerce's reports and relevant industry analyses. The threshold matters because the new tariffs, totaling approximately 220% on Chinese graphite anode material, are expected to significantly alter the competitive landscape, favoring North American producers like Graphite One. This shift is critical as it could lead to a more localized supply chain, reducing dependency on Chinese imports. The evaluation will consider the strategic advantage gained by domestic producers and the overall impact on supply chain dynamics.
Source: Article
Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on how an interpreter scores the "shift" in the US graphite supply chain. The creator clarifies that the combination of:
Aggressive US tariffs and policy
China's temporary easing of some controls
strongly supports a "more than halfway there" (>50) assessment of supply chain realignment, even if volumes still overwhelmingly originate in China. This means the resolution focuses on the strategic/structural shift rather than requiring a majority of actual volume to come from non-Chinese sources.
1,000The key here is not actual tonnage away from China by March 22, but whether a reasonable interpreter, using Commerce reports and industry analysis, would judge US policy + early domestic projects as pushing the “strategic shift” comfortably past 50/100—and the creator has already signaled they think we’re there.
The core bet here is on how an interpreter scores “shift” given aggressive US tariffs and policy plus China’s temporary easing of some controls: that combination strongly supports a “more than halfway there” assessment of supply chain realignment, even if volumes still overwhelmingly originate in China.