48% chance. I have qualified for usamo 2026 and will be taking it at mit. If I do not take usamo this market I have entered into a bet where I must ask someone out if (but not only if) I predict at least 4+eps solves on usamo 2026. Here 4+eps is defined as four solves (5/6/7) and nonzero partials on another problem, i.e. 555510 is a valid "4+eps" score for this market's sake. I may also ask out anyone for reasons completely unrelated to the bet: if I find them sufficiently attractive, or I have already wanted to ask them out and is simply using usamo 2026 as a convenient opportunity, or whatever else. Asking out anyone during the two days of usamo 2026 (march 21st and 22nd) counts, even if they did not take the usamo, as long as the "asking out" happens at a place that could be considered part of usamo 2026, including the testing site (whichever mit room the test occurs in), anywhere reasonably close to the testing site, and any social event consisting of mostly usamo quals, including but not limited to AFTERPARTY 4. What counts as "asking out" is up to my discretion. Whether my actual score is at least 4+eps is unrelated to this market. I have qualified for a previous MOP and have received 4+eps scores on a (plural) number of usamo level olympiads.